Adam Dunn: Where did the Bat Speed Go?

Adam Dunn is on a historically bad pace this season, and it appears that part of the reason is that he somehow lost a chunk of bat speed while making the offseason journey to Chicago. Take a look at the data chart, which shows the average speed the ball came off of his bat and the average true distance the ball travelled on his home runs this year and the previous five seasons (from ESPN Home Run Tracker).

What’s eye-catching is that the ball is coming off of Dunn’s bat 2 mph slower than any of the previous five seasons, and 5.2 mph slower than his best bat-speed-average in 2008. This change appears to have a significant affect on how far the ball travels. This year his average home run is travelling 393 ft. In previous years he’s never averaged below 410 ft. The 2 mph change appears to have dropped the distance the ball travels off his bat by more than 15 feet! (Physics research backs this up: In terms of turning a hit into a homer – Against a 94-mph fastball, every 1-mph increase in swing speed extends distance about 8 ft (Popular Mechanics))

And now if you take that 15 feet and apply it to Dunn’s hit chart below, you can easily see the difference it would make if he could get that distance back. It appears that there are easily six fly ball outs that would’ve gone for home runs with an extra 15 feet, and that’s just at Dunn’s home park (U.S. Cellular Field). Assuming the same on the road, that could be a total of 12 additional home runs. That’s a considerable number. Even with 12 more home runs, Dunn would still be hitting under .200, but at least it would be a little more tolerable for Sox fans if he had 21 home runs right now instead of nine. For the sake of his career, Dunn needs to find a way to get his bat speed back.

Tags: Adam Dunn, Bat Speed, Chicago White Sox, Home Run Distance

How Fastballs have Helped Pirates’ Pitchers Succeed in 2011

Not surprisingly, the fastball represents the majority of pitches used in baseball. On average, 58% of all pitches in MLB this year are fastballs. So that it stands to reason that if a pitcher, or even better an entire pitching staff, can improve the value derived from the fastball, they should see some overall improvement. That happens to be the case for the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff.

The best way to currently measure the value from a single pitch is to use the statistic wFB/C. This stat measures the number of runs saved per 100 fastballs thrown. It also allows for easy comparison across teams.

The 2011 Pirates have a wFB/C value of 0.15, meaning that 0.15 runs are saved for every 100 fastballs thrown. This only ranks them 19th in baseball, but it’s the improvement in this statistic that has been more important to the Pirates resurgence.  Last year the Pirates staff had a wFB/C value of -0.80, ranking them last in MLB. The 0.15 posted thus far marks a year-over-year increase of 0.95, the best in the majors. And just to show how important an improved fastball is in baseball, note that the top five teams in wFB/C improvement have a winning percentage of 0.537 in 2011 versus 0.431 in 2010 (a significant increase of 0.106). The bottom five teams in wFB/C change have a winning percentage of 0.442 in 2011 versus 0.508 in 2010 (a decline of -0.066).

Knowing the above, the next question is whether the Pirates will be able to maintain a positive wFB/C value and continue to compete in the second half.  Since this stat is generally looked at as being more descriptive than predictive, it’s hard to say exactly where a pitcher will end up year-over-year. However, there are three important pitchers on the Pirates staff that have over-performed with the fastball versus the past two seasons and thus deserve watching.

First is Paul Maholm, a Pirates starter who has thrown the most innings for the team this year. His wFB/C is currently 0.74, but that’s come after values of -0.96 in 2010 and -0.50 in 2009. The second is starter Jeff Karstens, who has posted a 0.98 wFB/C after seasons of -0.96 and -0.76 in 2010 and 2009, respectively. The third pitcher to watch is closer Joel Hanrahan. His wFB/C in 2009 was a respectable 0.86 in 2009, dropped to -0.94 in 2010, and is now currently at 2.11, placing him in the top 15 amongst all relievers.

The improvement with the fastball has definitely been one of the many factors that have lead to the Pirates improvement this year. If the pitching staff, and especially the three pitchers noted above, can continue their success with the fastball, the Pirates should remain competitive down the stretch.

Tags: Jeff Karstens, Joel Hanrahan, Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates, wFB/C

Appreciating Chipper Jones

After Derek Jeter reached 3,000 hits, I wanted to know where he placed amongst current and all-time players in terms of WAR, currently the best statistic to measure overall on-field contribution. Jeter ranks sixth amongst active ballplayers and 69th overall. That’s about what I expected. However, this exercise led to one surprise: that Chipper Jones is currently ranked second amongst active players and 35th overall. My surprise really stems from the fact that I knew that Chipper Jones was a very good ballplayer, I just didn’t know he was that he was a great ballplayer. And I don’t think I’m alone.

Here’s one example of just how underappreciated Chipper has been during his career. In the five-year span from 2003 to 2008, he wasn’t selected as a starter or reserve in any of the All-Star Games, but posted the 7th best OPS, 6th best wOBA, and most importantly, the 7th best WAR in MLB during that time. Basically, one of the top 10 hitters in all of baseball during those five years couldn’t make a single All-Star Game. Think that happens to someone like Derek Jeter?

When Chipper finally did get back to the All-Star Game in 2008, it marked his sixth selection to the game in 14 years. Alfonso Soriano was already playing in his seventh game in eight years.

So how can someone who’s a former NL MVP and one of the best hitters of our current era be so overlooked, at least in comparison to other star players? Well, Chipper played much of his early career during the Braves run of 14 consecutive division titles that featured other stars like Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, Sheffield, and Andruw Jones, just to name a few. He’s also a team-first, non-contorversial player who did nothing extraordinary to draw attention. He’s a great player who presents himself a very good player.

Barring an unexpected resurgence in the next couple seasons, Chipper will never get to 3,000 hits (he’s currently at 2,565). And until he retires and people really start to take a look at what he’s done, he’ll probably never receive the level of attention that’s due to a player of his accomplishments. Which is a shame, because we’ve truly been watching one of the best.

Tags: Atlanta Braves, Chipper Jones

A Rational Realignment (to 15 Team Leagues in MLB)

Here’s my take on a 15-team-per-league realignment for MLB. A summary and some detailed explanations of why the below realignment makes sense follows the division layouts.

Quick Summary of Why this Realignment Makes Sense

Below is a summary of the top five reasons why this realignment makes sense for MLB. A detailed explanation of my rationale can be found after the summary section.

1. It meets MLB’s apparent need to even out the leagues to 15 teams with only a slight change to the AL/NL teams (the Marlins switch to the AL)
2. It separates the large revenue generating teams from the rest of the teams, creating more parity and lessening the need for a salary cap
3. The Major Market divisions (Robinson and Ruth Divisions) contain the largest and most popular baseball markets. Having those teams play each other more often can help with TV match-ups and generate more interest (please see the scheduling section).
4. All East and West teams play the Major-Market  division teams in their respective league the same number of times (for example, the Twins and Rays will play the Yankees same number of times each year)
5. MLB is guaranteed to have at least two major market teams in the playoffs every year.

Detailed Explanation of the Proposed Realignment

A. Major Changes

1. The creation of a “Major-Market” division in each league

Without a salary cap likely in the near future, smaller market teams need to be given an opportunity at the playoffs without having to go through the major markets teams all of the time (especially the Yankees and Red Sox). Creating the “Major Market” divisions will:

• Have the teams in the major-markets play each of the teams in their league an equal number of times (see the scheduling section below).
• Have the major-market teams playing each other more often, setting up better TV match-ups (again, see the scheduling section, it’s important for this divisional set-up)
• Guarantee MLB at least two major market teams (one in each league) in every playoff year.
• Improve parity in the other divisions in each league

2. The Florida Marlins switch to the American League

In the above divisional set-up, one team is needed in the AL East. The Marlins make the most sense for a number of reasons:

• No strong rivalries with any current NL team will be broken
• Possibility of a rivalry with Tampa Bay in the AL
• Shortest tenure in the NL of any team that could be considered for the switch
• Travel schedule for other teams makes more sense with both Florida-based teams in one league

3. No more interleague play for non-major market teams

Interleague play has run its course and generally fans aren’t that interested in seeing most of the interleague match-ups. Want to see Pittsburgh versus Toronto? You can this year, but you’d be one of the few that really wants to see that match-up.

4. More Interleague play for the major-market teams

There are a couple reasons for this change:

• Teams in the major-markets will play more often against each other, building rivalries that may not have existed previously.
• It’ll likely help the TV ratings, with more opportunity to see the large market teams playing each other.
• It’s necessary for the scheduling (see below).

5. No More DH in the AL

This has nothing to do with realignment; I only put it here because it’s time this change was made.

B. Playoffs

The playoff structure will remain exactly as it is currently:

• Each division winner gets an automatic playoff berth, with one wild card team per league
• The ALCS and NLCS champions meet in the World Series.

C. Scheduling

The scheduling is actually quite simple with this structure. There are two different schedules: (1) the schedule for the six Major-Market teams (Ruth and Robinson Division), and (2) the schedule for the other 24 teams. Here’s how the schedules breakdown:

1.       Major Market Schedule (6 teams) – Using the Boston Red Sox as an example:

• Play 36 in-division games (18 games each against the Yankees and Angels)
• Play 54 games against the NL Major Market teams (18 games each against the Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers)
• Play 72 games against all other AL teams (6 games against each of the other AL teams)

2.       Non Major Market Schedule (Remaining 24 teams) – Using the Minnesota Twins as an example:

• Play 90 in-division games (18 games each against the other Killebrew division teams)
• Play 54 games against the Hank Aaron Division teams (9 games each versus the other AL non-major market teams)
• Play 18 games against the Babe Ruth Division teams (6 games each against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels)

These schedules (in terms of game versus other divisions) will hold true for every team. The parity in the schedules will improve significantly without creating much complexity.

In conclusion…

There’s more that I can say about the changes, but I believe that the change to two 15-team leagues proposed above can be made very simply while also improving the parity in the divisions immensely.

Tags: MLB, Realignment