What to do with Vernon Wells

June 10th, 2009 Posted in Blue Jays | 3 Comments »

Many fans who have watched the Jays this year would agree that the team has performed very well despite the poor performances of some of its key hitters, notably Vernon Wells. But has Wells actually played that badly? 

Simply, yes….and here’s some stats to back up that opinion as well as some possible solutions for improvement.

As of June 8th, Wells has produced a RAR of -8.0. RAR stands for Runs Above Replacement, which calculates how many runs someone was worth both offensively and defensively compared to a replacement-level player at the same position. In Wells’ case, a replacement level player (one who’s typically not even good enough to make the major league roster) would have contributed 8.0 runs more than Wells in 2009 so far. And to put it in greater perspective, the RAR of -8.0 makes Wells’ the 8th worst player in all of baseball….yikes.

So what can the Jays do with Wells? With a backloaded contract that has him making an average of $21.5 million from 2011 to 2014, he’s virtually untradeable. The Jays thus need to mitigate Wells’ negative effect on the Jays as a whole and put him in situations where he can best succeed. Not the type of thing you’d want to say about a player who’s supposed to be the team’s best player, but it’s the situation that the Jays are inHere’s a couple ways the Blue Jays can get the greatest contribution from Wells and, in turn, do what’s best for the team:

1. Move him to Right Field

Wells is no longer a viable option in center field, period. His UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -13.2 runs below average makes him the absolute worst defensive player in baseball….that’s any player at any position.

Wells’ terrible OF defense isn’t something new in 2009. Since 2006, Wells’ UZR/150 Innings has steadily declined, posting values of +7.9, -1.1, -24.0, and now -34.9 in ‘09. A move out of center field is definitely needed in order to improve the Jays’ defense. 

Alex Rios, the current RF, could easily slide over to CF and immediately improve the Jays overall defense. Rios played 62 games in CF last year (59 starts) and posted an overall UZR of 8.5 and a UZR/150 Innings of 23.8, significantly better than Wells.

Vernon may not like being asked to move to RF, but for the good of the team it is something that should be considered.

2. Move him in the line-up – Up, Down, Anywhere (but probably down)

Overall, Wells has a slash of .254/.308/.386 with 5 HR and 28 RBI in 236 at-bats. All of those at-bats have been from the important, run-producing 4th spot in the line-up. Overall, the Jays clean-up spot ranks 24th in baseball in SLG and is well below the MLB average SLG of .477. Additionally, the 5 HR’s the Jays have received in the #4 spot rank 29th, behind only the Dodgers. 

Where things get even worse is with men on base. In 67 at-bats with men in scoring position, Vernon’s hitting a paltry .164/.277/.313. With men on base anywhere, he’s hitting only .217/.285/.325. This is not adequate production from a clean-up hitter. 

 The Red Sox took the dramatic step of moving David Ortiz down in the line-up earlier this season, and I think that the Jays, as an offense, may be best served by doing the same, even if it’s only for a short time while Wells’ attempts to work things out. Wells’ career production from the leadoff spot doesn’t suggest that he’ll be a good fit there (.251/.331/.435), so a move down to the 5th spot (career .320/.348/.538) or the 6th spot (career .313/.358/.536) may serve him and the team best.

3. Hit Some Fastballs

Here’s a funny things about Wells’ hitting stats. He appears to be showing greater plate disciple by only swinging at only 24.8% of pitches outside the strike zone, his lowest number since 2005. Add to that the fact that Wells is making contact on pitches in the strike zone at a higher rate than his career averages, and it makes you wonder why Vernon isn’t having a better year at the plate. Here are a couple answers based upon stats that could help to explain what’s happening:

1. Pitchers aren’t giving Vernon much to hit.

So far only 47.2% of the pitches Wells has faced have been strikes. Compare that to the last three seasons where Wells saw approximately 51% of pitches thrown as strikes, and it would make sense that the number of swings he’s taking at outside pitches would decline. Thus, his overall plate discipline probably has not improved, it’s just a function of what he’s being thrown.

2. When pitchers are giving him hittable pitches, Wells isn’t hitting fastballs.

His wFB/C (weighted runs per 100 fastballs) is -1.07, making Wells the 20th worst hitter of fastballs in all of baseball. A pitcher who knows that a hitter can’t hit fastballs will use this to their advantage, and pitchers in baseball have seemingly done so thus far against Vernon. In total, 59.9% of all the pitches Wells has seen this year are fastballs, the highest percentage of fastballs he’s faced since 2004.

It’s impossible to determine from the stats available what is causing Wells’ inability to hit fastballs; it could be slower bat speed, vision problems, lack or concentration, or any other number of factors. The one thing that can definitely be determined is that if Wells’ continues to be unable to hit fastballs, he will continue to struggle at the plate.

Take for example the hitters that are hitting fastballs at a worse rate than Wells. The list is littered with players having a terrible 2009 (David Ortiz, Brian Giles, Alexi Ramirez, Chris Young, Troy Tulowitzki, etc). In reverse, the players who are hitting fastballs the best are having great years (Albert Pujols, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, Mark Teixeira, etc). This is definitely something Wells needs to fix. 

Overall, there’s no easy answer to completely turn around Wells 2009 season. However, stats can help point to some solutions that can help maximize the value of Wells while also putting the team in a better position to win. I think that moving him to right field, hitting him lower in the order, and working on his ability to hit fastballs should help to increase Vernon’s contribution to the Blue Jays.

Halladay and Strikeouts

April 8th, 2009 Posted in Blue Jays | No Comments »

At the end of Roy Halladay’s great 2008 season, one surprise was that he finished with a K/9 ratio of 7.54. This number isn’t outrageous for a top pitcher, especially considering the ratios of guys like Tim Lincecum and A.J. Burnett (10.51 and 9.39, respectively). What is surprising is that in 2006 and 2007 Halladay’s K/9 ratios were 5.40 and 5.55, meaning that in 2008 he increased the number of batters he struck out by two per nine innings. That’s a very significant increase, especially considering the point where Halladay is in his Halladaycareer.

So what could be the cause of such an increase? One of the interesting stats from last year was the percentage of batters that swung at pitches outside of the strike zone against Halladay. In 2006 and 2007, batters swung at 28.9% and 27.7% of pitches outside the strike zone. In 2008, that number was 31.4%, an increase of almost 4% over 2007. Getting batters to swing at more balls would definitely help in improving the number of strikeouts, especially for a pitcher like Halladay who has such good command of his pitches and the strike-zone.

But that leads to another question: Why would batters swing at more outside pitches? This answer is less clear. One of the stats that may point to an answer is the number of cut fastballs Halladay’s thrown versus regular fastballs.

Since 2004, Halladay has increased the number of cutters thrown from 2.5% to 33.2%, in turn decreasing the percentage of regular fastballs from 70.1% to 40.7% over the same time period. In fact, from just 2007 to 2008 he increased the number of cutters thrown from 25.2% to 33.2%. The reason why throwing more cutters could have a positive affect on the K/9 ratio is two-fold:

  1. The cutter typically has more movement than a regular fastball, making it more difficult to hit.
  2. Halladay throws both pitches at approximately the same speed, averaging 92.7 MPH for fastballs and 90.3 MPH for cutters last year. This makes it difficult for batters to determine which pitch is coming.

The combination of the movement and speed of the cutter plus the increase in number thrown could definitely be one explanation into why Halladay was able to increase his K/9 ratio. It’ll be interesting to see if Halladay can keep this high of a K/9 ratio in 2009. My guess is that it’ll likely come back down a bit, and he’ll finish with a ratio somewhere between 5.75 and 6.00.

One other amazing stat from last year: Even though Halladay increased his K/9 ratio significantly, he was able to decrease the number of pitches thrown per inning from 14.79 in 2007 to 14.47.  Typically the average pitcher would increase the number of pitches thrown to get more K’s, but Doc is definitely not an average pitcher.

Blue Jays Opening Night Notes

April 7th, 2009 Posted in Blue Jays | No Comments »

Some thoughts and comments from the Jays home opener:

  • Good clutch hitting from the Jays last night. The four runs in the first inning all came after there were two outs, with Adam Lind picking up the key hit. Overall, the Jays scored 7 of their 12 runs with men in scoring position and two out. Those clutch hits resulted in the difference between a 12-5 game and a 5-5 game.

  • Both Lind and Snider hit well last night, especially Lind who had a homer and 6 RBI. Snider had a double and a homer to start the game, but looked lost swinging at some off-speed pitches later in the game. Snider will top 20 HR this season, but his splits will likely be in the .260/.295/.420 area, as he learns how to hit a major league breaking ball.

  • Some “fans” can be idiots at the game. Those that throw paper airplanes (especially those planes that glide halfway across the field) are actually very cool. Those that throw golf balls and baseballs are idiots. I think Tigers manager Jim Leyland said it best:

“Ice-cold Labatt’s and a big win for the Blue Jays, they were having a great time,” Leyland said. “But you can’t endanger any players, whether they’re you’re players or someone else’s, you just can’t do it.”

  • Some bad new for Jays fans attending the second game of the season: no beer.

A comment from Paul Beeston:

“Attendance will go down, unless we’re a contending team in August or September, in which case we might be able to pull ourselves out,” Beeston said matter-of-factly, when asked about his expectations for the year.

From the Toronto Star:

The club expects to report smaller crowds this season in part because they will be announcing paid attendance only, exclusive of tickets given away through promotions and discounts.

In previous seasons, attendance figures were based on turnstile counts, which included so-called “freebie” tickets.

This weekend, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman — who is well connected at the GM level — speculated that the Red Sox might be willing to take on the remaining $20-million (all currency U.S.) of Toronto closer B.J. Ryan’s salary in order to expedite the acquisition of Alex Rios, who has six years and $63.6-million left on his multiyear deal (not including a club option for 2015.)

If the Red Sox are willing to take on Ryan’s salary to get Rios, the Jays should be all over that deal. The Red Sox have a number of young players that should interest the Jays (Clay Bucholz, Lars Andersen, Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Yamaico Navarro). The Jays also won’t need to find a replacement outfielder, as Lind can play out there, although he’s horrible defensively compared to Rios (Lind had a UZR/150 of -14.4 in 2008, compared to Rios’ +23.1).

Loss of outfield defense aside, a deal like this would result in significant cost savings for 2009 while also improving the team for the ’10 or ’11 season. Losing the salary of Rios and Ryan will allow them to: 1. Have money to extend Halladay after 2010; and 2. Give McGowan, Marcum, Snider, and Lind long-term deals that will take them through their arbitration years and into their first couple free agency years at very cost-effective numbers.

With a strong group of young players all signed and guys like Overbay and Rolen coming off the books in 2010, the Jays would have a solid core to build around. This scenario would make them strong playoff contenders entering 2011, with a lot of spending money available to add pieces that will help get them over the hump.

« Previous Entries