JonColosimo.com - Toronto Blue Jays Blog

The Two Sides of A.J. Burnett

On Wednesday night against the Orioles, A.J. Burnett was, as TSN.ca put it, both “brilliant and brutal.” He started off perfect against the first 10 Baltimore batters, and had allowed only 1 run on 2 hits through 5 innings. However, he lasted only 2/3 of the 6th inning, allowing 6 runs on 5 hits and a walk.

So, what happened? How could Burnett go from being so dominant to so brutal in such a short span of time?

Using the pitch f/X data from last night’s game, pitch speed, break, and location can be reviewed in order to help explain at least some of the cause of performance decline.

Pitch Speed
First, we can use the Pitch f/X data to look at whether Burnett lost some velocity on his pitches, thus allowing the Orioles hitters to more easily make contact.

PitchSpeed
Innings 1 to 5     Inning 6
Type     Speed   Type     Speed
CH        86.8      CH        86.3
CU        80.7      CU        80.6
FA        93.9      FA        93.2

From the above stats, velocity wasn’t a problem for Burnett as he was able to maintain almost the exact same average pitch speed in the 6th inning as in the previous 5 innings.

Pitch Break
We can also use the data to look at the average vertical break in Burnett’s pitches to determine if he lost some of the effectiveness of his pitches.

Pitch Break
Innings 1 to 5     Inning 6
Type     Break    Type     Break
CH        8.8        CH        8.9
CU        13.9      CU        14.1
FA        5.6        FA        5.0

Similar to pitch speed, Burnett was also able to maintain the same break on his pitches into the 6th inning. Thus, break was also not an issue.

Pitch Location
From the above data, Burnett was able to maintain the velocity and break on his pitches in the 6th inning. However, we can also look at the percentage of pitches that were balls in order to determine if he was able to locate is his pitches.

Pitch Location
Innings 1 to 5                 Inning 6
Type     % of Balls         Type     % of Balls
CH        30%                  CH        67%
CU        40%                  CU        78%
FA        46%                  FA        29%
Total     43%                  Total     48%

From the above data, it appears that, although Burnett’s overall percentage of balls remains relatively equal, he had trouble locating his pitches.

In the first 5 innings, Burnett threw 30% of change-ups and 40% of curves for a ball. However, in the 6th inning, those numbers jumped to 67% and 78%, respectively. It appears that Burnett was no longer able to locate his change or curve and was thus forced to throw his fastball over for strikes in order to get back into the count. The Orioles were able to pick up on this, and just waited on the fastball. This would also explain why the 4 singles and 1 home run that Burnett gave up in the 6th were hit off his fastball. His was forced to throw it over due to a lack of control with his other pitches.

Pitch location likely isn’t the only reason that Burnett had a terrible 6th inning, but you can see from the above data that it at least part of the problem.

Notes on Lind, Snider, Hill, Dunn/Ricciardi, and McGowan

• Adam Lind is currently hitting .330/.391/.524 in 185 at-bats at AAA Syracuse. In 2007 with the Jays, Lind hit .333/.366/.573 with runners in scoring position. Maybe it’s too obvious of a solution, but why aren’t the Jays playing Lind? You really have to question the Jays commitment to player development and fixing their offensive issues when they continue to throw away at-bats on Wilkerson and Mench instead of playing their only hitting prospect that’s major league ready. Blue Jays fans should be furious with the front office over these inexplicable decisions.

• The other top offensive prospect in the Jays system is 20-year-old Travis Snider. In 257 at-bats split between Dunedin (A) and New Hampshire (AA), Snider is hitting .280/.361/.498 with 14 HRs and 47 RBI. He’s still a couple years away from making an impact in the majors, but with the Jays current offensive struggles, I’m sure we’ll start hearing fans clamoring for him to be brought up to the big club.

• Cross out one current slugger coming to help the Jays offense via trade. J.P. Ricciardi, when asked about the possible acquisition of Adam Dunn, said the following:

“Do you know the guy doesn’t like baseball that much? Do you know he doesn’t have a passion to play the game that much?” And; “We’ve done our homework on players like Adam Dunn. There’s a reason why we don’t want Adam Dunn.”

Dunn responded by calling Ricciardi a “clown.” Maybe Ricciardi has found out something about Dunn’s character and it’s for the best that the Jays don’t trade for him, but you do have to question the way that Ricciardi made those comments. And Jays fans probably wish that the front office did as much research about a player’s hitting abilities as they apparently do on a player’s character, as that might have prevented the Jays from becoming one of the worst offensive clubs in baseball.

And for the record, Dunn likely wouldn’t be the type of player that could turn the Jays’ offense around anyway. Yes, Dunn has hit at least 40 HRs in each of the last 4 years. However, in those 4 years he’s also struck out 722 times with only a .252 average. Basically, he doesn’t make contact often, but when he does it’s a home run. In order to get the offense back on track, the Jays would need to trade for a more consistent offensive force than Dunn.

• Adding to offensive woes is the fact that Aaron Hill is still out of action after suffering a concussion on May 29. And from the sounds of it, Hill isn’t even close to returning. In a recent Toronto Sun article, Hill says:

“I haven’t done a thing since Friday when I rode the stationary bike, hit a little off the tee and took a few throws,” Hill said in the Jays clubhouse. “After that I was woozy.”

That doesn’t sound promising at all. Hill’s a solid contact hitter who has such great bat control that he can spark a lot of things at the plate. The Jays need him back in the line-up as soon possible, as he’s one of their most important pieces.

• After getting swept by the Brewers, John Gibbons can’t have much wiggle room left. The offense has struggled and the fan base is getting restless. Something has to be done, and Gibbons will likely be the fall guy. To show the fans that the team is doing something to change their fortunes, I would expect Gibbons to be fired within the week, and definitely before the team returns home to face the Reds.

• Moving away from the offense, here’s a neat stat about Dustin McGowan: So far this season, he has the fastest average fastball amongst all major league starters at 95.2 mph. He’s the only MLB starter over 95 mph. Close behind McGowan are Felix Hernandez (94.9 mph) and Josh Beckett (94.5 mph). Marlins reliever Matt Lindstrom has the fastest average fastball at 97.0 mph.

• The Jays have been pretty consistent with how many pitches they allow their starters to throw. Below is the average number of pitches each pitcher throws per start:

Halladay      99
Burnett        98
McGowan    98
Marcum       97
Litsch          85

Each of the top four starters is kept just below the “magic” number of 100 pitches. Only Jesse Litsch is well below the 100 pitch mark. Keeping the pitch counts down will ensure that the staff is healthier later into the season…and everyone knows that the Blue Jays only chance of contending for a playoff spot is if the rotation is able to stay healthy.

A.J.’s Antics and Other Notes

On the weekend, A.J. Burnett made another boneheaded move that will draw the ire of fans. Last week he tipped his cap to the fans as he was booed off the field after allowing 10 hits and 8 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. This past weekend, A.J. sounded as if he’d more than welcome a trade out of Toronto. Here are a couple of the quotes:

“If something were to happen and I’d have the opportunity to go to a place where baseball is breakfast, lunch and dinner, that would be awesome. Right now, my focus is with this club. But if something like that were to happen, I’d accept it with open arms.”

And;

“My focus and loyalty is with the Toronto Blue Jays until it’s out of my control. Who wouldn’t want to play for the Cubs?”

Burnett can say that his loyalty is with the Jays, but there’s no doubt that a comment like “…I’d accept it with open arms” in reference to a trade means that Burnett is thinking about leaving.

This leaves a dilemma for J.P. Ricciardi and John Gibbons, who both may be on their way out of Toronto if the Jays don’t have a successful year. With Burnett having the ability to opt-out of his contract after this season (which it seems like he will definitely do), should the Jays:

(a)     Trade him, knowing that they won’t get comparable pitching talent back in a trade and they don’t any prospects ready to help in the minors; or

(b)     Keep him, try to win now, and get nothing in return when he leaves at the end of the season.

For 2008, the Jays are definitely a better team on the field with Burnett. He’s pitched better than his 6-6 record and 4.90/1.51 ERA/WHIP show, and the Jays won’t be able to get the same level of production from anywhere else.

However, it appears as though he’s becoming a cancer in the clubhouse, and it may be better for the team chemistry if Burnett is moved. Even Vernon Wells doesn’t seem completely convinced of Burnett’s commitment to the Jays, saying:

“He understands his job is with the Blue Jays. He spoke the truth, I guess, and he understands he’ll have to answer questions. He’s a grown man and he can say what he likes.”

With his job on the line, I believe that Ricciardi will retain Burnett, knowing that keeping him provides the Jays the best opportunity to win this year, forfeiting the possible haul of prospects that a solid playoff contender may give up at the trade deadline to get Burnett. That being said, if the Jays fall much further out of the playoff race (currently 8.5 out in the AL East and 6.0 out in the Wild Card), they will have no choice but to sell-off what they can in order to build for the future.

One final note about Burnett’s comments: He said that he’d love the opportunity to “go to a place where baseball is breakfast, lunch and dinner.” Really A.J.? You get pissed at the fans who boo you of the field in Toronto, but you’d love to deal with the fans that will not only boo you off the field at Wrigley, but also talk about you 24/7 on the radio, in the news, etc? That would be ideal? I don’t think Jays fans are dumb enough to believe that line, A.J.

Other Notes

• The Jays are now hitting .190 with runners in scoring position in their 13 games in June.

• How satisfying must Reed Johnson have felt after this weekend’s series? First he receives a standing ovation from Jays fans in his first plate appearance back in Toronto, and on Saturday he hits a 3-run homer that put the Cubs ahead for good. It must’ve been nice for him to show the Jays that he could still hit.

• Sticking with Johnson’s hitting, Reed’s line so far this year is a modest .267/.342/.381 in 176 at-bats, while Shannon Stewart (who took Johnson’s roster spot on the Jays) is hitting .240/.325/.303 in 175 at-bats. Those numbers are relatively close. However, there’s one significant difference in their stats and that’s hitting with runners in scoring position. With RISP, Johnson’s an outstanding .400/.443/.580, while Stewart’s hitting a paltry .211/.347/.316. For a team that’s having trouble driving in runners, who would you rather have?

• Continuing the theme of not driving guys in, the Jays had an opportunity to get back into Sunday’s game against the Cubs when they loaded the bases with 2 outs in the third and Vernon Wells at-bat. Of course, Wells swung at the first pitch and popped it up in the infield for an easy out. For the Jays to win, Wells needs to be smarter and better than that.

• As Richard Griffin mentioned in his weekly mailbag, Rod Barajas is having trouble catching the ball on plays at the plate. At the time, Mr. Giffin had counted three plays that weren’t made by Barajas that could’ve been outs. Well, you can continue to add to the count, as on Saturday there were two close plays at home that could’ve resulted in outs, but Barajas could catch the ball on either play.

Shaun Marcum: Can he be this good for the entire year?

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star wrote an article on June 12th about Shaun Marcum not being the most talented starter on the Jays, but possibly the team’s most important starter if they hope to contend. So far, Marcum has been better than the Jays could have expected. An argument could even be made that he is currently the best pitcher in the American League, ranking first in both ERA (2.43) and WHIP (0.99).

The logical question that follows is this: Can Marcum pitch this well for the rest of the season?

Below I’ll give the case for and against the possibility of Marcum continuing to pitch this well, based upon some the statistical measures that are readily available on sites like hardballtimes.com and baseball-reference.com.

First I’ll start with the case against….

The Case Against:

Below are a few of the statistical measures that suggest that Marcum will not be able to pitch this well for the remainder of the season:

DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio)
DER measures the percentage of batted balls that are turned into outs by a team’s fielders, not including home runs (this is similar BABIP, but from the pitcher’s perspective).

Currently, the American League average DER is .705. Shaun Marcum’s DER is .776. This means that 7.1% more batted balls are turned into outs while Marcum is pitching as compared to the league average. Furthermore, Marcum’s .776 ranks second highest in the AL, behind only the .797 DER posted by Gavin Floyd of the White Sox. There is no doubt that this has helped keep runners off base, in turn keeping his ERA  and WHIP low.

For the remainder of the season, I would expect Marcum’s DER to even out and come back closer to the average.  If it does, the result would be a rise in Marcum’s ERA and WHIP.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
FIP measures all aspects that a pitcher is responsible for, and helps to show how well a pitcher pitched regardless of how well his fielders fielded. The stat shown is an ERA equivalent number.

Shaun Marcum’s FIP is 3.58. This means that had his fielders not played so well behind him, his ERA could be a full 1.15 runs higher (as compared to his actual ERA of 2.43).

The impact of this defensive support can be seen on the FIP leader list. Marcum is still close to the top, ranking 10^th in the AL. However, three of his Jays’ teammates rank higher:

Rank     Pitcher              ERA     FIP       FIP-ERA
2          Halladay            3.07      2.91      -0.16
5          Burnett              4.98      3.38      -1.60
6          McGowan          3.92      3.41      -0.51
10         Marcum            2.43      3.58      1.15

The FIP-ERA column shows that Halladay, Burnett, and McGowan haven’t been as fortunate with the Jays fielders as Marcum. All three of the above could have a lower overall ERA than Marcum if the Jays defence had provided them with better support. This is especially true for A.J. Burnett, whose ERA is a full 1.60 runs higher because of a lack of defensive support.

You would have to believe that, over the course of the season, the level of defensive support will even out, which would result in an ERA/WHIP increase for Marcum and a decrease for Burnett and McGowan.

Innings Pitched
This is a fairly simple measure that needs to be taken into account when projecting Marcum’s stats. So far in 2008, Marcum has thrown 92 innings. Assuming that he stays healthy and makes 32 starts, he projects to throw approximately 210 innings, a 32% increase over any other year.  That level of increased workload will almost definitely result in Marcum tiring into August and September, which, in turn, will likely cause batters to hit him a little more often.

The Case For:

Below are a few of the stats that could support the argument that Shaun Marcum will continue to be one of the best pitchers in the AL throughout the remainder of the season:

RZR (Revised Zone Rating)
Revised Zone Rating measures the number of batted balls hit into each player’s zone that are turned into outs.

The Jays’ team RZR of .841 is well above the league average of .825, and ranks second behind only Oakland. Basically, the Jays are doing a good job of getting outs when the ball is hit within a playable range, When broken down by infield and outfield defence, both again finish above the league average as well, a testament to the Jays’ strong overall team defence.

Assuming that the Jays can continue to play a high-calibre of defence (and there’s no reason to assume they can’t) it is possible that Marcum could maintain his low ERA and WHIP numbers. However, as noted above in the FIP section, much of the good defence has been saved for Marcum. The Jays may continue to play well in the field, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll be doing it during Marcum’s starts.

OOZ (Out of Zone Plays)
OOZ measure the number of defensive plays made by players outside of their respective zones.

The Jays, as a team, have made 187 OOZ plays, second only to the Angels. This means that not only is the defence making the plays on balls hit to them (as seen above in RZR), but they are also making the tougher outs as well. Again, since defence doesn’t go into slumps, it is reasonable to expect that the Jays will continue to play decent defence.

K/9 & BB/9
Marcum has improved his K/9, BB/9, and K/BB ratios versus 2007. The improvement K/9 and BB/9 is a likely result of better overall control as well as better pitch selection. Pure development alone will help to keep him pitching well.

Additionally, versus 2007, Marcum is mixing in more change-ups (up from 20.4% of all pitches to 22.1%) and curves while in turn decreasing the percentage of fastballs and cutters. This likely provides a different look more often to the hitter, helping in Marcum’s success.

Summary

Even if the Jays continue to play great defence for Marcum, he will not finish the season with an ERA under 2.50 and a WHIP under 1.00. I believe that the number of innings pitched as well as other statistics beginning to average out (such as DER and FIP) will result in an increase in his ERA and WHIP. I predicted before the season that Marcum would finish with an ERA of approximately 4.00; however his hot start should allow him to finish better than that. Look for him to end 2008 with an ERA/WHIP of 3.50/1.15. That would still be a very nice year for Marcum, especially in his first season as a full-time starter.

How About a Hit with Runners in Scoring Position?

The Blue Jays offense again hung the pitching staff out to dry during their weekend series against Cleveland, scoring only 4 runs in the 4 games while at one point going 31 consecutive innings without scoring a run. In fact, the Jays scored only 1 run in the first 36 innings of the series before scoring 3 in the 10^th inning of the final game.

How bad has the offense been so far?
In the American League, the Jays rank 13^th out of 14 teams in runs per game (3.70), ahead of only Kansas City (3.59). By comparison, in the AL East the Red Sox (5.10), Rays (4.68), and Yankees (4.31) are all significantly ahead of the Jays in runs per game. The only division opponent that’s close is Baltimore, at 4.00 runs/game.

So why aren’t the Jays scoring?
The misconception is that the Jays aren’t hitting at all. The truth is they are getting on base, they’re just not scoring. In the AL, the Jays rank 10^th in batting average, 5^th in on-base percentage, and 12^th in slugging percentage. The number that stands out is the rank of 5^th in OBP. A team that is able to get that many runners on-base should be scoring more.

Thus, the problem is hitting with runners in scoring position. The Jays just cannot get hits when it counts. So far this year, the Jays are hitting an awful .209 with runners in scoring position. The next lowest average in the AL is Seattle at .237, meaning that the Jays are almost 30 points behind the next lowest team. The best team batting average with runners in scoring position is the Twins at .316, more than 100 points better than the Jays.

Who’s to blame?
The blame really can be passed throughout the entire batting order, Here’s a typical Jays line-up (when healthy) with each player’s 2008 batting average with RISP (note that Wilkerson’s average includes time spent with Seattle earlier this year):

Player               AVG w RISP
Rios                       0.200
Hill                         0.275
Rolen                     0.250
Stairs                     0.143
Wells                     0.279
Overbay                 0.111
Wilkerson               0.167
Zaun                      0.194
Eckstein                0.303

Eckstein is the only player hitting over .300 so far this year with RISP, while key hitters Stairs and Overbay are both hitting under .150. In fact, Stairs, who hits in the clean-up position, hasn’t been cleaning-up at all. With nobody on, Stairs is hitting a very good .361/.371/.541. Put somebody on base (including first, not even in scoring position) and Stairs’ numbers fall to .217/.302/.304. Definitely not the results a team would want to see from its supposed clean-up hitter.

Additionally, there aren’t any players on the bench that can really help out. Injured John McDonald is hitting .333 with RISP, but that’s definitely an aberration, especially when you compare that to his overall average. The next highest average amongst bench players after McDonald is Marco Scutaro, who’s hitting just .226 with RISP.

How to fix it
I think that the Jays are on the right path to fixing things. The best thing that they can do is be extra aggressive on the basepaths, and they’re already doing that. They must continue to take the extra-base or steal a bag whenever possible. Do the fundamentals, like getting bunts down, correctly, in order to succeed. The more pressure that the Jays can put on a pitcher, the more offensive success they’ll enjoy, as this is definitely not the line-up that can wait for a 3-run homer.

Of course, there’s always the solution of going out and acquiring a difference-making bat (as opposed to dead wood like Wilkerson and Mench). However, acquiring that type of bat would likely result in the Jays giving up one of their starting pitchers. With pitching at a premium in the majors, I think that the player the Jays get in return would have to be a star in order to justify the trading of one of the their top arms. I don’t expect a trade to happen.

Additional Notes
Tonight the Jays start a 3-game series at the Metrodome against the Twins. For Jays fans interested in potential stars on other teams, keep an eye on Kevin Slowey, the Twins starting pitcher on Tuesday night. He’s making only his 14^th career major league start, pitching decently so far with a career 4-3 record, 4.30 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP. However, in 366.2 minor league innings (63 total games) he had a K/BB ratio of 361/52, an ERA of 1.94, and a WHIP of 0.85. Those are very impressive numbers that should eventually carry over to the major league level. Within a year or two, Slowey should be a significant force on the Twins pitching staff.

Finally, I write about the Jays because I live in Toronto and attend many of their games. But I’m actually a die-hard Twins fan. So here’s hoping that the Jays anaemic offense continues to sputter over the next 3-games, that Litsch, Doc, and McGowan get roughed up a bit, and the AL Central-leading Twins come away with a sweep. Win Twins!